The general rule regarding parlays is: DON'T.
Parlays generally carry a higher house edge than straight bets, therefore you give the book a more impressive advantage over you when you play them. That, by itself, is reason enough to suppress the misplaced feelings of greed coupled with fear that often result in betting parlays. People think they are risking less with parlays, but they aren't. They believe they are able to win more with parlays, but they cannot. The higher win with parlays is far outweighed by the bigger probability of losing. Parlay bettors are in fact risking more, with less possibility of collecting.
A parlay is not an individual bet. It is two bets -- a one-unit bet on one team and a two-unit bet on the other. Which team gets the two-unit bet? In point-spread betting at constant money odds, if both teams win or both teams lose no matter which team gets the double bet. When one team wins and one team loses, however, the double bet is presumed to have been on the loser. How smart is that for the bettor? Just do it, create a parlay. We'll wait until both games are over, and in case of a split we'll put the double bet on the loser. If your bookmaker sold you a parlay with that line, just how many of you'll still make the bet?
A parlay is also bad money management. In a parlay you either bet double on the next team, or nothing on that same team, dependant on if the first game won or lost. That adds an element of luck to your betting it doesn't must be there. The skilled handicapper is always wanting to make smart investments. He tries to remove the effect of luck to the greatest extent possible in order to make his results as predictable as you possibly can.
As with every rule, however, you can find exceptions. The exception to the rule regarding parlays occurs once the two bets are co-dependent.
I knew one bookmaker who was simply taken for tens of thousands because he didn't understand the co-dependency of certain bets. He allowed a new player to consistently parlay the first half with the game. The player parlayed totals by combining the over in the initial half with the over in the game, and the under in the first half with under in the overall game. Both parlays were manufactured in the same game. Every time the player won he'd win 2.6 times his bet. Betting $100 on each parlay, if one of them won, the ball player would win $260 and lose $100 on another parlay for a net win of $160. He could never win both parlays. If he lost both parlays he would lose $200.
At first glance, this appeared to be a great chance of the book. The standard coin-flip probability of winning one parlay out of the two are 50-50. So far as the bookie was concerned the bettor should be winning $160 half enough time, and losing $200 half the time. The bettor, however, making $500 parlays, was ahead a lot more than $20,000 after six months, and the book started to look at what the bettor was doing more carefully.
The issue for the bookmaker was that the two halves of each parlay were co-dependent. By the end of the first half, the bettor was hardly ever in a 50-50 situation.
Take the Thursday night game between Utah and Air Force. The game total was 53 and the first half total was 27. By the end of the initial half, the score was 31-21, for a total of 52 first-half points. The first half of one of many parlays, the "over" in the first half was a winner. For the parlay probability to be correct, there should now be considered a 50-50 probability of winning the "over" for the overall game. Obviously the odds of winning the "over" in the overall game weren't 50-50 but much better than 99% and only the "over." The player only had a need to win the first half of the parlay to be virtually assured that he would collect 2.6 times his money rather than just $10 for $11.
Before you rush out to try this, remember that most off-shore books are far too smart to enable you to parlay first half to game. If they do allow you to do this, start worrying about collecting because that book will soon be taken up to the cleaners.
You can find, however, some less obvious co-dependent parlays that may still be made at many books. One type of co-dependent parlay may be the parlay of the side and total in exactly the same game.
Any game in which the total is significantly less than double the spread can give you an edge in parlaying side to total in the same game. We've already discussed, in a prior article, how exactly to use these anomalous side and total combinations to hedge one another and boost your win with very little increase in risk. Such a bet, however, required that you have an opinion privately or the total. Parlaying is another solution to boost your potential win on these games, or to create a potential win when you have no opinion.
There are two games this Saturday that qualify. They are Virigina -25 over Duke with a complete of 48 �, and Kansas St. -24 � vs. North Texas with a total 46 �).
In the Virginia game, if you believe that Virginia will cover the 25 points, then they must hold Duke to no more than 11 points or the overall game will go over the total. Hi88 Casino becomes through the game that Virginia covers 25 points, the much more likely it becomes that the game will go over 48 �. The wider Virginia's winning margin, the much more likely the game will go over. If you like Virginia to cover the spread, and you believe that Duke will not be shut out, then your possibility of winning a parlay on Virginia and the over are greater than the standard 25%. Likewise, if the scoring stays low, it is less likely that Virginia covers the 25 points. As a result, the probability a parlay of the under with the underdog will win is greater than the normal 25%.
Should you have no opinion on the overall game, you can parlay the favourite with the "over" and the underdog with the "under" and collect sufficiently often to exceed the losses when both parlays lose. In the only real other game meeting the qualifications this week -- Friday's game between California -30 against New Mexico State with a total of 58 -- the under has already won with the underdog for a winning two-parlay spread.
The closer the posted total is to the spread on the side, the better win-rate will undoubtedly be on the parlay "spread" bet. The co-dependency in side to total parlays isn't as strong as parlaying first half and game totals (if it were, most books wouldn't normally allow such bets), but you will find a sufficient co-dependency in the games with low totals and high spreads to make the strategy profitable long-term.
Not all bookmakers will allow you to parlay the medial side to the total in exactly the same game, because increasingly more are realizing that these bets are sometimes co-dependent. But, enough books still do allow such bets that you can consider including such bets in your professional betting arsenal.
If your bookmaker provides "if/reverse" bets, you can replace the parlay bet with an "if/reverse" bet and achieve greater success.