The general rule regarding parlays is: DON'T.
Parlays generally carry an increased house edge than straight bets, which means you give the book a bigger advantage over you when you play them. That, alone, is reason enough to suppress the misplaced feelings of greed coupled with fear that often lead to betting parlays. People think they're risking less with parlays, however they are not. They believe they can win more with parlays, however they cannot. The higher win with parlays is far outweighed by the higher probability of losing. Parlay bettors are actually risking more, with less possibility of collecting.
A parlay is not an individual bet. It really is two bets -- a one-unit bet using one team and a two-unit bet on another. Which team gets the two-unit bet? In point-spread betting at constant money odds, if both teams win or both teams lose no matter which team gets the double bet. When one team wins and something team loses, however, the double bet is presumed to possess been on the loser. How smart is that for the bettor? Just do it, make a parlay. We'll wait until both games are over, and in case there is a split we'll put the double bet on the loser. If your bookmaker sold you a parlay with that line, how many of you would still make the bet?
A parlay can be bad money management. In a parlay you either bet double on the next team, or nothing on that same team, dependant on if the first game won or lost. That adds some luck to your betting it doesn't should be there. The skilled handicapper is definitely wanting to make smart investments. He tries to remove the effect of luck to the best extent possible in order to make his results as predictable as possible.
Much like every rule, however, there are exceptions. The exception to the rule regarding parlays occurs when the two bets are co-dependent.
I knew one bookmaker who was taken for tens of thousands because he didn't understand the co-dependency of certain bets. He allowed a player to consistently parlay the initial half with the game. The ball player parlayed totals by combining the over in the first half with the over in the overall game, and the under in the first half with under in the game. Both parlays were made in the same game. Each time the player won he would win 2.6 times his bet. Betting $100 on each parlay, if one of these won, the ball player would win $260 and lose $100 on the other parlay for a net win of $160. nhà cái may88 could never win both parlays. If he lost both parlays he'd lose $200.
At first glance, this were a great chance of the book. The standard coin-flip probability of winning one parlay out from the two are 50-50. So far as the bookie was concerned the bettor ought to be winning $160 half enough time, and losing $200 half the time. The bettor, however, making $500 parlays, was ahead a lot more than $20,000 after 6 months, and the book begun to look at what the bettor was doing more carefully.
The problem for the bookmaker was that both halves of every parlay were co-dependent. At the end of the initial half, the bettor was almost never in a 50-50 situation.
Take the Thursday night game between Utah and Air Force. The game total was 53 and the first half total was 27. At the end of the initial half, the score was 31-21, for a total of 52 first-half points. The first half of among the parlays, the "over" in the initial half was a winner. For the parlay probability to be correct, there should now be considered a 50-50 probability of winning the "over" for the game. Obviously the chances of winning the "over" in the game were not 50-50 but much better than 99% and only the "over." The player only needed to win the first 1 / 2 of the parlay to be virtually assured that he would collect 2.6 times his money rather than just $10 for $11.
Before you rush out to try this, remember that most off-shore books are much too smart to enable you to parlay first half to game. Should they do allow you to do this, start fretting about collecting because that book will soon be taken to the cleaners.
There are, however, some less obvious co-dependent parlays that may still be made at many books. One kind of co-dependent parlay may be the parlay of the side and total in exactly the same game.
Any game where the total is less than double the spread can give you an edge in parlaying side to total in exactly the same game. We've already discussed, in a prior article, how to use these anomalous side and total combinations to hedge one another and boost your win with hardly any increase in risk. Such a bet, however, needed that you have an impression on the side or the total. Parlaying is another solution to increase your potential win on these games, or to develop a potential win assuming you have no opinion.
You can find two games this Saturday that qualify. They're Virigina -25 over Duke with a complete of 48 �, and Kansas St. -24 � vs. North Texas with a complete 46 �).
In the Virginia game, if you were to think that Virginia covers the 25 points, then they must hold Duke to no more than 11 points or the overall game will go over the full total. The much more likely it becomes through the game that Virginia covers 25 points, the more likely it becomes that the overall game will go over 48 �. The wider Virginia's winning margin, the more likely the game will review. If you want Virginia to cover the spread, and you believe that Duke will not be shut out, in that case your probability of winning a parlay on Virginia and the over are greater than the normal 25%. Likewise, if the scoring stays low, it is less likely that Virginia will cover the 25 points. Due to this fact, the probability that a parlay of the under with the underdog will win is higher than the normal 25%.
Should you have no opinion on the overall game, you can parlay the favorite with the "over" and the underdog with the "under" and collect sufficiently often to exceed the losses when both parlays lose. In the only other game meeting the qualifications this week -- Friday's game between California -30 against New Mexico State with a complete of 58 -- the under has already won with the underdog for a winning two-parlay spread.
The closer the posted total would be to the spread on the side, the better win-rate will be on the parlay "spread" bet. The co-dependency in side to total parlays isn't as strong as parlaying first half and game totals (if it were, most books would not allow such bets), but you will find a sufficient co-dependency in the games with low totals and high spreads to make the strategy profitable long-term.
Not all bookmakers will help you to parlay the medial side to the total in the same game, because an increasing number of are realizing that these bets are sometimes co-dependent. But, enough books still do allow such bets that you consider including such bets in your professional betting arsenal.
If your bookmaker provides "if/reverse" bets, it is possible to replace the parlay bet with an "if/reverse" bet and achieve greater success.