The general rule regarding parlays is: DON'T.
Parlays generally carry a higher house edge than straight bets, which means you give the book a more impressive advantage over you when you play them. That, by itself, is reason enough to suppress the misplaced feelings of greed coupled with fear that often result in betting parlays. People think they're risking less with parlays, but they aren't. They believe they can win more with parlays, however they cannot. https://fb88group.net/ with parlays is far outweighed by the higher probability of losing. Parlay bettors are actually risking more, with less possibility of collecting.
A parlay is not an individual bet. It really is two bets -- a one-unit bet on one team and a two-unit bet on another. Which team gets the two-unit bet? In point-spread betting at constant money odds, if both teams win or both teams lose it doesn't matter which team gets the double bet. When one team wins and one team loses, however, the double bet is presumed to possess been on the loser. How smart is that for the bettor? Go ahead, create a parlay. We'll wait until both games are over, and in case there is a split we'll put the double bet on the loser. If your bookmaker sold you a parlay with that line, how many of you'll still make the bet?
A parlay can be bad money management. In a parlay you either bet double on the second team, or nothing on that same team, dependant on whether the first game won or lost. That adds an element of luck to your betting that doesn't need to be there. The skilled handicapper is definitely seeking to make smart investments. He tries to remove the result of luck to the greatest extent possible in order to make his results as predictable as you possibly can.
As with every rule, however, you can find exceptions. The exception to the rule regarding parlays occurs when the two bets are co-dependent.
I knew one bookmaker who was simply taken for tens of thousands because he didn't understand the co-dependency of certain bets. He allowed a new player to consistently parlay the initial half with the overall game. The player parlayed totals by combining the over in the initial half with the over in the overall game, and the under in the initial half with under in the overall game. Both parlays were made in the same game. Every time the player won he would win 2.6 times his bet. Betting $100 on each parlay, if one of these won, the player would win $260 and lose $100 on the other parlay for a net win of $160. He could never win both parlays. If he lost both parlays he would lose $200.
At first glance, this appeared to be a great opportunity for the book. The normal coin-flip probability of winning one parlay out from the two are 50-50. So far as the bookie was concerned the bettor should be winning $160 half the time, and losing $200 half the time. The bettor, however, making $500 parlays, was ahead more than $20,000 after six months, and the book started to look at what the bettor was doing more carefully.
The issue for the bookmaker was that both halves of each parlay were co-dependent. By the end of the initial half, the bettor was hardly ever in a 50-50 situation.
Take the Thursday night game between Utah and Air Force. The game total was 53 and the initial half total was 27. At the end of the initial half, the score was 31-21, for a complete of 52 first-half points. The initial half of one of the parlays, the "over" in the first half was successful. For the parlay probability to be correct, there should now be a 50-50 probability of winning the "over" for the game. Obviously the chances of winning the "over" in the overall game weren't 50-50 but better than 99% in favor of the "over." The ball player only had a need to win the first 1 / 2 of the parlay to be virtually assured that he would collect 2.6 times his money instead of just $10 for $11.
Before you rush out to try this, be aware that most off-shore books are far too smart to permit you to parlay first half to game. If they do enable you to do this, start worrying about collecting because that book will be taken up to the cleaners.
You can find, however, some less obvious co-dependent parlays that can still be made at many books. One type of co-dependent parlay may be the parlay of the medial side and total in the same game.
Any game where the total is significantly less than double the spread can provide you an edge in parlaying side to total in the same game. We've already discussed, in a prior article, how exactly to use these anomalous side and total combinations to hedge one another and increase your win with hardly any increase in risk. This type of bet, however, needed that you have an opinion privately or the full total. Parlaying is another solution to boost your potential win on these games, or even to develop a potential win in case you have no opinion.
There are two games this Saturday that qualify. They're Virigina -25 over Duke with a complete of 48 �, and Kansas St. -24 � vs. North Texas with a total 46 �).
In the Virginia game, if you believe that Virginia will cover the 25 points, then they must hold Duke to no more than 11 points or the game will go over the total. The much more likely it becomes during the game that Virginia will cover 25 points, the more likely it becomes that the game will go over 48 �. The wider Virginia's winning margin, the much more likely the game will review. If you want Virginia to cover the spread, and you also believe that Duke will not be shut out, then your possibility of winning a parlay on Virginia and the over are higher than the standard 25%. Likewise, if the scoring stays low, it is less likely that Virginia covers the 25 points. Subsequently, the probability that a parlay of the under with the underdog will win is higher than the normal 25%.
Should you have no opinion on the game, you can parlay the favorite with the "over" and the underdog with the "under" and collect sufficiently often to exceed the losses when both parlays lose. In the only real other game meeting the qualifications this week -- Friday's game between California -30 against New Mexico State with a total of 58 -- the under has recently won with the underdog for a winning two-parlay spread.
The closer the posted total is to the spread on the side, the better win-rate will be on the parlay "spread" bet. The co-dependency in side to total parlays isn't as strong as parlaying first half and game totals (if it were, most books wouldn't normally allow such bets), but you will find a sufficient co-dependency in the games with low totals and high spreads to help make the strategy profitable long-term.
Not all bookmakers will allow you to parlay the medial side to the full total in exactly the same game, because more and more are realizing these bets are occasionally co-dependent. But, enough books still do allow such bets that you consider including such bets in your professional betting arsenal.
If your bookmaker provides "if/reverse" bets, you can replace the parlay bet with an "if/reverse" bet and achieve greater success.