There are countless 'handicapping services' available of providing people who have parlays. They will tout win rates similar to some of the most impressive straight wager cappers. Of course, so as to they refer to money line parlays as 'safe' bets. On a number of these sites you may even have the privilege of dealing with some form of royalty in the field of parlay wagering. Regrettably, thousands will be fooled by this fiction again this football season.
The truth is that exotic wagers keep sports books running a business. Next time you are in Vegas check out the discarded tickets you see spread all over the place. It's safe to assume that might be nearly all these losers are made up of such bets placed on both sports and racing. Of all the sucker bets open to sports bettors, the parlay is king. Bettors are lured in by the promise of an enormous payout while disregarding the truth that there is absolutely no reasonable expectation of any return on investment.
The home edge on a typical straight wager at -110 is 4.5%. Weighed against many table games this is actually a fairly high percentage. Plenty of table games and slots offer a better value for the average bettor placing a random wager. However, we all know that betting on sports isn't anything like throwing a pair of dice at the trunk wall.
Chance plays a role in everything the house has to offer. There are also steps that could be taken to decrease the edge in just about every game. Nowhere in the casino are elements such as for example skill and preparation more useful compared to the sports book. The edge on a straight wager can be reversed in the bettors favor by utilizing statistics and expertise in a sport. However, a double digit house edge can't ever be overcome in the long term.
# of Teams | Actual Odds | Typical Payout | House Edge
2 | 3/1 | 2.6/1 | 10.00%
3 | 7/1 | 6/1 | 12.50%
4 | 15/1 | 10/1 | 31.25%
5 | 31/1 | 20/1 | 34.38%
6 | 63/1 | 40/1 | 35.94%
7 | 127/1 | 75/1 | 40.63%
8 | 255/1 | 150/1 | 41.02%
9 | 511/1 | 300/1 | 41.21%
10 | 1023/1 | 700/1 | 31.54%
As you can plainly see every parlay you can possibly bet has a whopping 10% house edge or better. Such casino advantages are more consistent with keno, and they are equally impossible to overcome over time. There is absolutely no mystery surrounding the planet of parlays. Bettors are attracted to risking handful of money for large payouts. The games that are most often played in the casino are slot machines that offer thousands or even millions in progressive jackpots. The mentality of these bettors is 'Go big, or go back home.' The casino is clearly happy to oblige as millions of bettors go back home with nothing within their pockets every year.
It really is fair to assume that the largest number of losing bets that a book accepts are exotic wagers of equal to or double the house minimum. It is because most bettors do not have a meaningful bankroll set aside for sports betting. Given that they don't believe they can make any real money by placing $25-50 on several games per week they continue taking parlays for $20 or less. By doing this they essentially ensure a significant loss by the end of the growing season. Meanwhile, if they only placed straight wagers at that same level they would limit their potential losses to some units at most.
Many bettors assume that because they're keeping the size of their bets low they are not taking on a significant risk. This analysis is flawed since it ignores several factors. Most of all, it really is my experience that most bettors usually do not place just one parlay per week. In football this means at the least 34 parlays are put through the regular season. In baseball that number can simply exceed 100. With a low unit bet that is still a dangerous amount of wagers to put with this type of high house edge. For K8CC , should you be placing only 5 team parlays your expectation should be to lose about $35 for every $100 you wager. Because the amount of bets you place increases it really is inevitable that you will hit that $100 mark many times over.
Using parlays as a side bet will most likely result in increasing your losses or erasing any profits you managed to make on straight wagers. In 2009 2009, I had a client who broke even after increasing his bankroll by 45% using my picks. He were able to do that by placing 'small' side bets including parlays, reverses, and teasers. That is an expensive lesson to understand especially when you take into account I issued a similar warning to him.
If you are likely to follow his lead and continue using parlays I have a few pointers that may help you in the end. First of all, the very best value of most parlays is actually the three team parlay. The difference between your house edge on a 2 & 3 teamer is insignificant, however the payout is more than twice as much. If you take a glance at the graph you need to understand why I would never bet a parlay of 4 teams or more. However, if you are going to make this investment listed below are two useful tips:
If you are going to bet a four or five 5 team parlay, always ensure it is 6 or even 10. The difference between your house edge to include one or two 2 more teams is within 5 percentage points and the payout is significantly higher for both options. The home edge on a 10 teamer is virtually the same as a 4 team parlay, however the actual odds of hitting it are over 1,000 to at least one 1.
If you are likely to throw your cash away chasing huge payouts on 7, 8, and 9 team parlays then just bet the 10 teamer. The House edge is approximately 10 points lower than all three of those bets also it typically pays about 700/1.
Setting reasonable goals and being patient while attempting to achieve them may be the sign of a profitable professional bettor. Greed should be kept in check to become successful. In this regard, every bettor has two options. It is possible to chase high returns while assuming a huge amount of unnecessary risk. Or you can minimize your exposure to several units while maintaining an acceptable expectation to improve your bankroll by 50%...The choice is yours.