There are countless 'handicapping services' available of providing people who have parlays. They will tout win rates similar to some of the most impressive straight wager cappers. Needless to say, so as to they refer to money line parlays as 'safe' bets. On a number of these sites you may even have the privilege of dealing with some form of royalty in the field of parlay wagering. Regrettably, thousands will undoubtedly be fooled by this fiction again this football season.
The fact is that exotic wagers keep sports books running a business. Next time you're in Vegas take a look at the discarded tickets you see spread everywhere. It's safe to assume that might be the majority of these losers are made up of such bets placed on both sports and racing. Of all the sucker bets open to sports bettors, the parlay is king. Bettors are lured in by the promise of a huge payout while disregarding the point that there is no reasonable expectation of any return on investment.
The house edge on a standard straight wager at -110 is 4.5%. Weighed against many table games this is actually a fairly raised percentage. Many table games and slots offer a better value for the common bettor placing a random wager. However, we all know that betting on sports isn't anything like throwing a couple of dice at the trunk wall.
Chance plays a role in everything the house provides. There are also steps which can be taken to reduce the edge in only about every game. Nowhere in the casino are elements such as for example skill and preparation more useful than the sports book. The edge on a straight wager can be reversed in the bettors favor by utilizing statistics and expertise in an activity. However, a double digit house edge can never be overcome in the long run.
# of Teams | Actual Odds | Typical Payout | House Edge
2 | 3/1 | 2.6/1 | 10.00%
3 | 7/1 | 6/1 | 12.50%
4 | 15/1 | 10/1 | 31.25%
5 | 31/1 | 20/1 | 34.38%
6 | 63/1 | 40/1 | 35.94%
7 | 127/1 | 75/1 | 40.63%
8 | 255/1 | 150/1 | 41.02%
9 | 511/1 | 300/1 | 41.21%
10 | 1023/1 | 700/1 | 31.54%
As you can see every parlay you can possibly bet has a whopping 10% house edge or better. Such casino advantages are more in line with keno, and they are equally impossible to overcome over time. There is no mystery surrounding the planet of parlays. Bettors are attracted to risking handful of money for large payouts. The games that are most often played in the casino are slots that offer thousands or even millions in progressive jackpots. The mentality of the bettors is 'Go big, or go home.' The casino is actually happy to oblige as an incredible number of bettors go home with nothing within their pockets every year.
It is fair to assume that the biggest number of losing bets that a book accepts are exotic wagers of add up to or double the home minimum. This is because most bettors don't have a meaningful bankroll reserve for sports betting. Given that they don't believe they can make any real cash by placing $25-50 on several games per week they continue taking parlays for $20 or less. By doing this they essentially ensure a substantial loss by the finish of the season. Meanwhile, if they only placed straight wagers at that same level they would limit their potential losses to a few units at most.
Many bettors assume that because they're keeping the size of their bets low they are not taking on a significant risk. This analysis is flawed because it ignores several factors. Most importantly, it is my experience that most bettors usually do not place just one parlay weekly. In football this means a minimum of 34 parlays are placed during the regular season. In baseball that number can easily exceed 100. With a low unit bet that is still a dangerous number of wagers to put with such a high house edge. For instance, should you be placing only 5 team parlays your expectation should be to lose about $35 for each $100 you wager. As the number of bets you place increases it is inevitable that you will hit that $100 mark many times over.
Using parlays as a side bet will most likely result in upping your losses or erasing any profits you managed to make on straight wagers. In '09 2009, I had litigant who broke even with increasing his bankroll by 45% using my picks. He managed to do this by placing 'small' side bets including parlays, reverses, and teasers. That is an expensive lesson to learn especially when you consider I issued a similar warning to him.
If you are going to follow his lead and continue using parlays I have a few pointers that will help you in the end. First of all, the very best value of all parlays is actually the three team parlay. The difference between your house edge on a 2 & 3 teamer is insignificant, however the payout is a lot more than twice as much. If you take a glance at the graph you should understand why I'd never bet a parlay of 4 teams or more. However, if you're going to make such an investment listed below are two useful tips:
If you are going to bet a four or five 5 team parlay, always ensure it is 6 as well as 10. The difference between your house edge to include 1 or 2 2 more teams is at 5 percentage points and the payout is significantly higher for both options. The home edge on a 10 teamer is virtually exactly like a 4 team parlay, however the actual probability of hitting it are over 1,000 to 1 1.
If bj88 are likely to throw your money away chasing huge payouts on 7, 8, and 9 team parlays then just bet the 10 teamer. THE HOME edge is approximately 10 points lower than all three of these bets and it typically pays about 700/1.
Setting reasonable goals and being patient while attempting to achieve them is the sign of a profitable professional bettor. Greed must be kept in check to become successful. In this regard, every bettor has two options. You can chase high returns while assuming plenty of unnecessary risk. Or it is possible to minimize your contact with several units while maintaining a reasonable expectation to increase your bankroll by 50%...The choice is yours.