There are countless 'handicapping services' in the business of providing people with parlays. They'll tout win rates similar to some of the most impressive straight wager cappers. Of course, so as to they refer to money line parlays as 'safe' bets. On a number of these sites you may even have the privilege of working with some form of royalty in neuro-scientific parlay wagering. Regrettably, thousands will undoubtedly be fooled by this fiction again this football season.
The fact is that exotic wagers keep sports books in business. Next time you're in Vegas have a look at the discarded tickets you see spread everywhere. It's safe to assume that might be the majority of these losers are made up of such bets placed on both sports and racing. Of all the sucker bets available to sports bettors, the parlay is king. Bettors are lured in by the promise of an enormous payout while disregarding the fact that there is absolutely no reasonable expectation of any return on investment.
The home edge on a typical straight wager at -110 is 4.5%. Compared with many table games this is really a fairly high percentage. A lot of table games and slots offer a better value for the common bettor placing a random wager. However, we all know that betting on sports isn't anything like throwing a set of dice at the trunk wall.
Chance plays a role in everything the house provides. There are also luck8 which can be taken to decrease the edge in only about every game. Nowhere in the casino are elements such as skill and preparation more useful than the sports book. The edge on a straight wager can be reversed in the bettors favor through the use of statistics and expertise in an activity. However, a double digit house edge can't ever be overcome in the long run.
# of Teams | Actual Odds | Typical Payout | House Edge
2 | 3/1 | 2.6/1 | 10.00%
3 | 7/1 | 6/1 | 12.50%
4 | 15/1 | 10/1 | 31.25%
5 | 31/1 | 20/1 | 34.38%
6 | 63/1 | 40/1 | 35.94%
7 | 127/1 | 75/1 | 40.63%
8 | 255/1 | 150/1 | 41.02%
9 | 511/1 | 300/1 | 41.21%
10 | 1023/1 | 700/1 | 31.54%
As you can plainly see every parlay it is possible to possibly bet has a whopping 10% house edge or better. Such casino advantages tend to be more in line with keno, plus they are equally impossible to overcome in the long term. There is absolutely no mystery surrounding the planet of parlays. Bettors are drawn to risking handful of money for large payouts. The games which are frequently played in the casino are slots that offer thousands as well as millions in progressive jackpots. The mentality of the bettors is 'Go big, or go home.' The casino is clearly pleased to oblige as an incredible number of bettors go home with nothing within their pockets every year.
It really is fair to assume that the biggest amount of losing bets a book accepts are exotic wagers of equal to or double the house minimum. This is because most bettors do not have a meaningful bankroll reserve for sports betting. Since they don't believe they can make any real money by placing $25-50 on a few games per week they continue taking parlays for $20 or less. Using this method they essentially ensure a substantial loss by the end of the season. Meanwhile, should they only placed straight wagers at that same level they might limit their potential losses to a few units at most.
Many bettors assume that because they are keeping the size of their bets low they're not taking on a substantial risk. This analysis is flawed because it ignores several factors. Most importantly, it is my experience that a lot of bettors usually do not place just one parlay per week. In football this implies at the least 34 parlays are placed during the regular season. In baseball that number can easily exceed 100. With a low unit bet this is still a dangerous number of wagers to place with this type of high house edge. For example, for anyone who is placing only 5 team parlays your expectation should be to lose about $35 for every $100 you wager. Because the number of bets you place increases it is inevitable that you'll hit that $100 mark several times over.
Using parlays as a side bet will most likely result in upping your losses or erasing any profits you managed to make on straight wagers. In '09 2009, I had litigant who broke even with increasing his bankroll by 45% using my picks. He managed to do this by placing 'small' side bets including parlays, reverses, and teasers. This is an expensive lesson to understand especially when you take into account I issued an identical warning to him.
If you are going to follow his lead and continue using parlays I've a few pointers that will assist you in the long run. First of all, the best value of all parlays is clearly the three team parlay. The difference between the house edge on a 2 & 3 teamer is insignificant, however the payout is a lot more than twice as much. Invest the a look at the graph you need to understand why I would never bet a parlay of 4 teams or even more. However, if you're going to make such an investment listed below are two useful tips:
If you are going to bet a 4 or 5 5 team parlay, always ensure it is 6 as well as 10. The difference between your house edge to include one or two 2 more teams is within 5 percentage points and the payout is significantly higher for both options. The home edge on a 10 teamer is virtually the same as a 4 team parlay, however the actual probability of hitting it are over 1,000 to at least one 1.
If you are going to throw your cash away chasing huge payouts on 7, 8, and 9 team parlays then just bet the 10 teamer. THE HOME edge is about 10 points less than all three of those bets and it typically pays about 700/1.
Setting reasonable goals and being patient while working to achieve them is the sign of a profitable professional bettor. Greed must be kept in check in order to be successful. In this regard, every bettor has two options. You can chase high returns while assuming plenty of unnecessary risk. Or it is possible to minimize your exposure to a few units while maintaining a reasonable expectation to improve your bankroll by 50%...The choice is yours.