"IF" Bets and Reverses
I mentioned last week, that if your book offers "if/reverses," you can play those rather than parlays. Some of you may not understand how to bet an "if/reverse." A complete explanation and comparison of "if" bets, "if/reverses," and parlays follows, along with the situations in which each is best..
An "if" bet is strictly what it appears like. You bet Team A and when it wins then you place an equal amount on Team B. A parlay with two games going off at differing times is a kind of "if" bet in which you bet on the first team, and if it wins you bet double on the second team. With a genuine "if" bet, rather than betting double on the next team, you bet the same amount on the next team.
You can avoid two calls to the bookmaker and lock in the current line on a later game by telling your bookmaker you need to make an "if" bet. "If" bets can also be made on two games kicking off as well. The bookmaker will wait until the first game is over. If the initial game wins, he will put an equal amount on the next game even though it was already played.
Although an "if" bet is actually two straight bets at normal vig, you cannot decide later that you no longer want the next bet. Once you make an "if" bet, the next bet can't be cancelled, even if the second game have not gone off yet. If the first game wins, you will have action on the second game. For that reason, there is less control over an "if" bet than over two straight bets. When the two games you bet overlap with time, however, the only way to bet one only if another wins is by placing an "if" bet. Of Hi88 casino , when two games overlap in time, cancellation of the second game bet is not an issue. It ought to be noted, that when the two games start at differing times, most books won't allow you to complete the next game later. You must designate both teams once you make the bet.
You possibly can make an "if" bet by saying to the bookmaker, "I wish to make an 'if' bet," and, "Give me Team A IF Team B for $100." Giving your bookmaker that instruction will be the same as betting $110 to win $100 on Team A, and then, only when Team A wins, betting another $110 to win $100 on Team B.
If the initial team in the "if" bet loses, there is absolutely no bet on the next team. No matter whether the second team wins of loses, your total loss on the "if" bet would be $110 once you lose on the initial team. If the first team wins, however, you would have a bet of $110 to win $100 going on the next team. In that case, if the next team loses, your total loss will be just the $10 of vig on the split of both teams. If both games win, you'll win $100 on Team A and $100 on Team B, for a total win of $200. Thus, the utmost loss on an "if" will be $110, and the maximum win would be $200. This is balanced by the disadvantage of losing the entire $110, instead of just $10 of vig, each and every time the teams split with the initial team in the bet losing.
As you can plainly see, it matters a good deal which game you put first within an "if" bet. In the event that you put the loser first in a split, then you lose your full bet. If you split however the loser is the second team in the bet, you then only lose the vig.
Bettors soon found that the way to steer clear of the uncertainty caused by the order of wins and loses is to make two "if" bets putting each team first. Instead of betting $110 on " Team A if Team B," you would bet just $55 on " Team A if Team B." and make a second "if" bet reversing the order of the teams for another $55. The second bet would put Team B first and Team Another. This kind of double bet, reversing the order of the same two teams, is called an "if/reverse" or sometimes just a "reverse."
A "reverse" is two separate "if" bets:
Team A if Team B for $55 to win $50; and
Team B if Team A for $55 to win $50.
You don't need to state both bets. You merely tell the clerk you want to bet a "reverse," the two teams, and the total amount.
If both teams win, the effect would be the same as if you played a single "if" bet for $100. You win $50 on Team A in the first "if bet, and $50 on Team B, for a total win of $100. In the second "if" bet, you win $50 on Team B, and then $50 on Team A, for a total win of $100. The two "if" bets together result in a total win of $200 when both teams win.
If both teams lose, the effect would also be the same as if you played an individual "if" bet for $100. Team A's loss would set you back $55 in the first "if" combination, and nothing would look at Team B. In the next combination, Team B's loss would set you back $55 and nothing would go onto to Team A. You would lose $55 on each of the bets for a complete maximum loss of $110 whenever both teams lose.
The difference occurs when the teams split. Rather than losing $110 when the first team loses and the second wins, and $10 once the first team wins however the second loses, in the reverse you'll lose $60 on a split whichever team wins and which loses. It works out in this manner. If Team A loses you'll lose $55 on the first combination, and have nothing going on the winning Team B. In the next combination, you will win $50 on Team B, and have action on Team A for a $55 loss, resulting in a net loss on the next mix of $5 vig. The loss of $55 on the initial "if" bet and $5 on the next "if" bet gives you a combined loss of $60 on the "reverse." When Team B loses, you will lose the $5 vig on the first combination and the $55 on the second combination for exactly the same $60 on the split..
We have accomplished this smaller loss of $60 rather than $110 when the first team loses without reduction in the win when both teams win. In both the single $110 "if" bet and the two reversed "if" bets for $55, the win is $200 when both teams cover the spread. The bookmakers would never put themselves at that sort of disadvantage, however. The gain of $50 whenever Team A loses is fully offset by the excess $50 loss ($60 instead of $10) whenever Team B is the loser. Thus, the "reverse" doesn't actually save us any money, but it does have the advantage of making the chance more predictable, and avoiding the worry as to which team to place first in the "if" bet.
(What follows can be an advanced discussion of betting technique. If charts and explanations give you a headache, skip them and write down the rules. I'll summarize the rules in an easy to copy list in my own next article.)
As with parlays, the general rule regarding "if" bets is:
DON'T, when you can win a lot more than 52.5% or more of your games. If you cannot consistently achieve a winning percentage, however, making "if" bets once you bet two teams will save you money.
For the winning bettor, the "if" bet adds an element of luck to your betting equation that doesn't belong there. If two games are worth betting, then they should both be bet. Betting using one shouldn't be made dependent on whether you win another. On the other hand, for the bettor who includes a negative expectation, the "if" bet will prevent him from betting on the second team whenever the first team loses. By preventing some bets, the "if" bet saves the negative expectation bettor some vig.
The $10 savings for the "if" bettor results from the point that he is not betting the second game when both lose. Compared to the straight bettor, the "if" bettor comes with an additional cost of $100 when Team A loses and Team B wins, but he saves $110 when Team A and Team B both lose.
In summary, whatever keeps the loser from betting more games is good. "If" bets decrease the amount of games that the loser bets.
The rule for the winning bettor is strictly opposite. Anything that keeps the winning bettor from betting more games is bad, and for that reason "if" bets will definitely cost the winning handicapper money. When the winning bettor plays fewer games, he's got fewer winners. Remember that the next time someone lets you know that the best way to win is to bet fewer games. A smart winner never really wants to bet fewer games. Since "if/reverses" work out exactly the same as "if" bets, they both place the winner at the same disadvantage.
Exceptions to the Rule - When a Winner Should Bet Parlays and "IF's"
Much like all rules, you can find exceptions. "If" bets and parlays should be made by a winner with a positive expectation in only two circumstances::
If you find no other choice and he must bet either an "if/reverse," a parlay, or perhaps a teaser; or
When betting co-dependent propositions.
The only time I can think of which you have no other choice is if you're the best man at your friend's wedding, you're waiting to walk down that aisle, your laptop looked ridiculous in the pocket of your tux so you left it in the car, you merely bet offshore in a deposit account with no line of credit, the book has a $50 minimum phone bet, you prefer two games which overlap with time, you pull out your trusty cell five minutes before kickoff and 45 seconds before you must walk to the alter with some beastly bride's maid in a frilly purple dress on your own arm, you try to make two $55 bets and suddenly realize you only have $75 in your account.
Because the old philosopher used to state, "Is that what's troubling you, bucky?" If so, hold your mind up high, put a smile on your own face, search for the silver lining, and make a $50 "if" bet on your own two teams. Of course you can bet a parlay, but as you will notice below, the "if/reverse" is a good replacement for the parlay if you are winner.
For the winner, the best method is straight betting. Regarding co-dependent bets, however, as already discussed, there is a huge advantage to betting combinations. With a parlay, the bettor is getting the benefit of increased parlay probability of 13-5 on combined bets that have greater than the standard expectation of winning. Since, by definition, co-dependent bets should always be contained within the same game, they must be made as "if" bets. With a co-dependent bet our advantage comes from the truth that we make the second bet only IF one of the propositions wins.
It would do us no good to straight bet $110 each on the favorite and the underdog and $110 each on the over and the under. We would simply lose the vig regardless of how usually the favorite and over or the underdog and under combinations won. As we've seen, if we play two out of 4 possible results in two parlays of the favourite and over and the underdog and under, we are able to net a $160 win when among our combinations comes in. When to find the parlay or the "reverse" when coming up with co-dependent combinations is discussed below.
Choosing Between "IF" Bets and Parlays
Predicated on a $110 parlay, which we'll use for the purpose of consistent comparisons, our net parlay win when among our combinations hits is $176 (the $286 win on the winning parlay minus the $110 loss on the losing parlay). In a $110 "reverse" bet our net win would be $180 every time one of our combinations hits (the $400 win on the winning if/reverse minus the $220 loss on the losing if/reverse).
When a split occurs and the under will come in with the favorite, or over comes in with the underdog, the parlay will eventually lose $110 as the reverse loses $120. Thus, the "reverse" has a $4 advantage on the winning side, and the parlay has a $10 advantage on the losing end. Obviously, again, in a 50-50 situation the parlay would be better.
With co-dependent side and total bets, however, we are not in a 50-50 situation. If the favourite covers the high spread, it really is more likely that the game will go over the comparatively low total, and if the favorite does not cover the high spread, it really is more likely that the game will under the total. As we have previously seen, once you have a positive expectation the "if/reverse" is a superior bet to the parlay. The actual possibility of a win on our co-dependent side and total bets depends upon how close the lines on the side and total are to one another, but the proven fact that they're co-dependent gives us a confident expectation.
The point where the "if/reverse" becomes an improved bet compared to the parlay when making our two co-dependent is really a 72% win-rate. This is simply not as outrageous a win-rate since it sounds. When making two combinations, you have two chances to win. You only have to win one from the two. Each of the combinations comes with an independent positive expectation. If we assume the opportunity of either the favorite or the underdog winning is 100% (obviously one or the other must win) then all we are in need of is really a 72% probability that whenever, for instance, Boston College -38 � scores enough to win by 39 points that the overall game will go over the total 53 � at the very least 72% of the time as a co-dependent bet. If Ball State scores even one TD, then we are only � point from a win. That a BC cover can lead to an over 72% of the time is not an unreasonable assumption under the circumstances.
As compared to a parlay at a 72% win-rate, our two "if/reverse" bets will win a supplementary $4 seventy-two times, for a total increased win of $4 x 72 = $288. Betting "if/reverses" may cause us to lose a supplementary $10 the 28 times that the outcomes split for a total increased loss of $280. Obviously, at a win rate of 72% the difference is slight.
Rule: At win percentages below 72% use parlays, and at win-rates of 72% or above use "if/reverses."