"IF" Bets and Reverses
I mentioned last week, that when your book offers "if/reverses," it is possible to play those rather than parlays. Some of you might not discover how to bet an "if/reverse." A full explanation and comparison of "if" bets, "if/reverses," and parlays follows, together with the situations in which each is best..
An "if" bet is strictly what it sounds like. Without a doubt Team A and IF it wins then you place an equal amount on Team B. A parlay with two games going off at different times is a kind of "if" bet in which you bet on the first team, and when it wins without a doubt double on the second team. With a true "if" bet, rather than betting double on the second team, you bet an equal amount on the next team.
It is possible to avoid two calls to the bookmaker and lock in the current line on a later game by telling your bookmaker you want to make an "if" bet. "If" bets may also be made on two games kicking off simultaneously. The bookmaker will wait until the first game has ended. If the initial game wins, he'll put an equal amount on the next game even though it was already played.
Although an "if" bet is really two straight bets at normal vig, you cannot decide later that so long as want the next bet. As soon as you make an "if" bet, the next bet cannot be cancelled, even if the second game have not gone off yet. If the first game wins, you will have action on the next game. For that reason, there's less control over an "if" bet than over two straight bets. When the two games without a doubt overlap in time, however, the only way to bet one only if another wins is by placing an "if" bet. Of course, when two games overlap with time, cancellation of the next game bet isn't an issue. It should be noted, that when the two games start at differing times, most books will not allow you to fill in the second game later. You must designate both teams once you make the bet.
You possibly can make an "if" bet by saying to the bookmaker, "I would like to make an 'if' bet," and, "Give me Team A IF Team B for $100." Giving your bookmaker that instruction will be the identical to betting $110 to win $100 on Team A, and then, only if Team A wins, betting another $110 to win $100 on Team B.
If the first team in the "if" bet loses, there is absolutely no bet on the second team. Whether or not the second team wins of loses, your total loss on the "if" bet would be $110 once you lose on the first team. If the initial team wins, however, you would have a bet of $110 to win $100 going on the second team. In that case, if the second team loses, your total loss will be just the $10 of vig on the split of the two teams. If both games win, you'll win $100 on Team A and $100 on Team B, for a total win of $200. Thus, the utmost loss on an "if" would be $110, and the maximum win will be $200. That is balanced by the disadvantage of losing the entire $110, rather than just $10 of vig, each time the teams split with the initial team in the bet losing.
As you can plainly see, it matters a good deal which game you put first within an "if" bet. In the event that you put the loser first in a split, you then lose your full bet. In the event that you split however the loser may be the second team in the bet, you then only lose the vig.
Bettors soon discovered that the way to avoid the uncertainty due to the order of wins and loses is to make two "if" bets putting each team first. Rather than betting $110 on " Team A if Team B," you would bet just $55 on " Team A if Team B." and then make a second "if" bet reversing the order of the teams for another $55. The second bet would put Team B first and Team Another. This kind of double bet, reversing the order of exactly the same two teams, is named an "if/reverse" or sometimes just a "reverse."
A "reverse" is two separate "if" bets:
Team A if Team B for $55 to win $50; and
Team B if Team A for $55 to win $50.
You don't need to state both bets. You only tell the clerk you wish to bet a "reverse," both teams, and the amount.
If both teams win, the effect would be the identical to if you played an individual "if" bet for $100. You win $50 on Team A in the first "if bet, and $50 on Team B, for a total win of $100. In the next "if" bet, you win $50 on Team B, and then $50 on Team A, for a total win of $100. Both "if" bets together create a total win of $200 when both teams win.
If both teams lose, the effect would also be the same as in the event that you played an individual "if" bet for $100. Team A's loss would cost you $55 in the initial "if" combination, and nothing would look at Team B. In the second combination, Team B's loss would cost you $55 and nothing would go onto to Team A. You'll lose $55 on each of the bets for a total maximum lack of $110 whenever both teams lose.
The difference occurs once the teams split. Rather than losing 789bet loses and the next wins, and $10 when the first team wins but the second loses, in the reverse you'll lose $60 on a split whichever team wins and which loses. It computes in this manner. If Team A loses you will lose $55 on the first combination, and also have nothing going on the winning Team B. In the next combination, you'll win $50 on Team B, and also have action on Team A for a $55 loss, producing a net loss on the next combination of $5 vig. The loss of $55 on the first "if" bet and $5 on the next "if" bet gives you a combined lack of $60 on the "reverse." When Team B loses, you'll lose the $5 vig on the first combination and the $55 on the next combination for the same $60 on the split..
We've accomplished this smaller loss of $60 rather than $110 when the first team loses without decrease in the win when both teams win. In both single $110 "if" bet and both reversed "if" bets for $55, the win is $200 when both teams cover the spread. The bookmakers would never put themselves at that sort of disadvantage, however. The gain of $50 whenever Team A loses is fully offset by the excess $50 loss ($60 instead of $10) whenever Team B may be the loser. Thus, the "reverse" doesn't actually save us hardly any money, but it has the advantage of making the risk more predictable, and preventing the worry concerning which team to put first in the "if" bet.
(What follows can be an advanced discussion of betting technique. If charts and explanations offer you a headache, skip them and simply write down the guidelines. I'll summarize the rules in an easy to copy list in my own next article.)
As with parlays, the overall rule regarding "if" bets is:
DON'T, if you can win a lot more than 52.5% or more of your games. If you fail to consistently achieve a winning percentage, however, making "if" bets once you bet two teams will save you money.
For the winning bettor, the "if" bet adds some luck to your betting equation it doesn't belong there. If two games are worth betting, they should both be bet. Betting using one should not be made dependent on whether you win another. Alternatively, for the bettor who has a negative expectation, the "if" bet will prevent him from betting on the second team whenever the first team loses. By preventing some bets, the "if" bet saves the negative expectation bettor some vig.
The $10 savings for the "if" bettor results from the point that he could be not betting the second game when both lose. When compared to straight bettor, the "if" bettor comes with an additional cost of $100 when Team A loses and Team B wins, but he saves $110 when Team A and Team B both lose.
In summary, anything that keeps the loser from betting more games is good. "If" bets decrease the number of games that the loser bets.
The rule for the winning bettor is strictly opposite. Whatever keeps the winning bettor from betting more games is bad, and therefore "if" bets will definitely cost the winning handicapper money. Once the winning bettor plays fewer games, he's got fewer winners. Understand that next time someone lets you know that the way to win is to bet fewer games. A smart winner never wants to bet fewer games. Since "if/reverses" work out exactly the same as "if" bets, they both place the winner at an equal disadvantage.
Exceptions to the Rule - When a Winner Should Bet Parlays and "IF's"
Much like all rules, you can find exceptions. "If" bets and parlays should be made by a winner with a positive expectation in only two circumstances::
When there is no other choice and he must bet either an "if/reverse," a parlay, or perhaps a teaser; or
When betting co-dependent propositions.
The only time I could think of that you have no other choice is if you're the best man at your friend's wedding, you're waiting to walk down the aisle, your laptop looked ridiculous in the pocket of your tux which means you left it in the car, you merely bet offshore in a deposit account without credit line, the book has a $50 minimum phone bet, you like two games which overlap in time, you grab your trusty cell five minutes before kickoff and 45 seconds before you need to walk to the alter with some beastly bride's maid in a frilly purple dress on your arm, you make an effort to make two $55 bets and suddenly realize you only have $75 in your account.
Because the old philosopher used to say, "Is that what's troubling you, bucky?" If so, hold your head up high, put a smile on your face, search for the silver lining, and make a $50 "if" bet on your two teams. Needless to say you can bet a parlay, but as you will see below, the "if/reverse" is a good replacement for the parlay in case you are winner.
For the winner, the very best method is straight betting. Regarding co-dependent bets, however, as already discussed, there exists a huge advantage to betting combinations. With a parlay, the bettor gets the advantage of increased parlay probability of 13-5 on combined bets which have greater than the standard expectation of winning. Since, by definition, co-dependent bets should always be contained within exactly the same game, they must be produced as "if" bets. With a co-dependent bet our advantage originates from the fact that we make the next bet only IF among the propositions wins.
It would do us no good to straight bet $110 each on the favorite and the underdog and $110 each on the over and the under. We'd simply lose the vig regardless of how usually the favorite and over or the underdog and under combinations won. As we've seen, if we play two out of 4 possible results in two parlays of the favorite and over and the underdog and under, we are able to net a $160 win when one of our combinations comes in. When to choose the parlay or the "reverse" when making co-dependent combinations is discussed below.
Choosing Between "IF" Bets and Parlays
Based on a $110 parlay, which we'll use for the purpose of consistent comparisons, our net parlay win when one of our combinations hits is $176 (the $286 win on the winning parlay minus the $110 loss on the losing parlay). In a $110 "reverse" bet our net win would be $180 every time among our combinations hits (the $400 win on the winning if/reverse minus the $220 loss on the losing if/reverse).
Whenever a split occurs and the under comes in with the favorite, or over comes in with the underdog, the parlay will eventually lose $110 while the reverse loses $120. Thus, the "reverse" includes a $4 advantage on the winning side, and the parlay includes a $10 advantage on the losing end. Obviously, again, in a 50-50 situation the parlay would be better.
With co-dependent side and total bets, however, we have been not in a 50-50 situation. If the favourite covers the high spread, it is more likely that the game will go over the comparatively low total, and if the favorite does not cover the high spread, it is more likely that the overall game will under the total. As we have already seen, once you have a confident expectation the "if/reverse" is a superior bet to the parlay. The specific possibility of a win on our co-dependent side and total bets depends upon how close the lines privately and total are to one another, but the fact that they are co-dependent gives us a confident expectation.
The point at which the "if/reverse" becomes a better bet than the parlay when coming up with our two co-dependent is a 72% win-rate. This is not as outrageous a win-rate since it sounds. When coming up with two combinations, you have two chances to win. You merely need to win one out of your two. Each one of the combinations comes with an independent positive expectation. If we assume the chance of either the favourite or the underdog winning is 100% (obviously one or another must win) then all we are in need of is really a 72% probability that when, for instance, Boston College -38 � scores enough to win by 39 points that the game will go over the total 53 � at least 72% of the time as a co-dependent bet. If Ball State scores even one TD, then we are only � point from a win. That a BC cover will result in an over 72% of that time period is not an unreasonable assumption beneath the circumstances.
As compared with a parlay at a 72% win-rate, our two "if/reverse" bets will win a supplementary $4 seventy-two times, for a total increased win of $4 x 72 = $288. Betting "if/reverses" may cause us to lose a supplementary $10 the 28 times that the results split for a total increased loss of $280. Obviously, at a win rate of 72% the difference is slight.
Rule: At win percentages below 72% use parlays, and at win-rates of 72% or above use "if/reverses."